Independent wine merchants are being urged to maintain their focus on recruitment, retention and premium positioning after new research found that falling customer numbers – rather than lower spend per visit – are the main drag on sales.

Liberty Wines’ 2026 independent off-trade report, based mainly on card-spend analysis covering more than 120 leading independents as well as its own insights, shows overall spend in indies fell 5% between March 2024 and March 2026, although it remains 20% above 2019 levels.

Performance varies sharply by business: more than 40% of merchants increased sales over the past two years, while 26% achieved growth of more than 10%.

The report identifies customer loss as the most pressing problem facing the channel. Shopper numbers fell 9% over the two-year period, although spend per visit increased.

It argues that the merchants achieving the strongest results are generally those adding customers, and that growth depends on giving shoppers more reasons to visit through range, service, events, tastings and communication.

Liberty warns against responding to the downturn by competing more aggressively with supermarkets on price. Its analysis suggests independents are retaining a stronger quality proposition even as wine prices rise.

The report says customers in the independent sector are “getting better wine in the bottle”, with more of the increase in retail price feeding through to the wine itself once duty, EPR, margins and exchange rates are taken into account. It concludes that a quality-led strategy offers better prospects than chasing low-price volume.

There are encouraging signs in the profile of the independent shopper. The average customer has become younger since 2019, while spending power has remained broadly stable. The report highlights an opportunity to increase frequency and spend among lower-spending customers, many of whom have similar income profiles to those spending substantially more each month.

Spain and South Africa have gained share in still wine, the report says, with smaller advances for Greece, Georgia and Germany, while Champagne, English sparkling wine and Provence rosé remain strong. Liberty says this supports the case for broad, distinctive ranges rather than more conservative selections.

Liberty Wines CEO Tom Platt says: “The report gives us huge confidence for the long-term future of indies. We know there are challenges, but the fundamentals are strong: competing on quality is proving far more resilient than competing on price, indies continue to attract a younger, engaged consumer and there are affluent consumers visiting indies who can be persuaded to spend more.”

• Analysis appears in the September edition of The Wine Merchant (digital and print formats)